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By: Amb (Retd) Ashok Kumar Attri
Venue: Gaya Campus, Central University of Bihar
Date: April 29, 2014
India’s Foreign Policy On Neighborhood
I am pleased to speak to you today on the subject chosen by the University, that is, India’s Relations with Neighbouing Countries – an important theme. The young Central University of Bihar has distinguished itself in the short period by establishing academic excellence through creation a large number of diverse teaching departments and attracting the best academic and research talent from across India and beyond. It is commendable that the Department of Political Studies in Gaya has been promoting the Study of International Relations in this part of India.
As an active practitioner in the profession of diplomacy for nearly four decades, I always welcomed interaction with the youth in Universities across the globe. It is doubly satisfying for me to engage with the youth of India as it is an investment in the growth and development of the future of our own beloved country. You, dear students, are the leaders of tomorrow. Therefore, I specially welcome this opportunity to engage with you today. I thank the Central University of Bihar and the Public Diplomacy Division of the Ministry of External Affairs of India for providing this opportunity to me to travel to Gaya and speak to you today.
India has had an ancient civilizational engagement with the outside world since times immemorial and has a strong belief in the shared destiny of the whole humanity on this planet. Our ancestors believed in the noble concept of "Vasudhaiv Kutumbkum”, the whole world is one family. Ancient India engaged actively with the world, with intensive trading with the Roman, Greek, Mesopotamian and later societies on the West of India and far flung areas to the East of India. I was Ambassador of India to the Sultanate of Oman, where archeologists discovered the remains of a four thousand year old boat containing evidence of diverse cargo from India. Earlier, in Kenya, I met a Gujrati gentleman, whose ancestor living in East Africa coast had been engaged by Vasco de Gama to help him reach India from East Africa in 1498.
In between, unfortunately India did develop a somewhat insular attitude, discouraging travel across the seas. This inward looking attitude started changing with our Independence struggle and changed further after 1947. Isolationism is not tenable in today's globalized world, with proliferation of air travel, fast, affordable movement of cargo, rapid advancements in communication technologies, dispersal of manufacturing and services across the globe, imperatives of global climate change and unfortunate globalization of crime, drug and small arms trade and terrorism across borders and across continents. Young persons with education in all walks of life need to be aware of the impact of these changes on us and need to develop interest and knowledge in these developments both for their own future professions and also for making well informed choices in the electoral politics and for decision relating to our civic society.
Indian foreign policy since Independence has a continuum which goes back to the values and ethos of our freedom movement, which considered decolonization and end of apartheid across the world as collective global responsibility.
Coming to our neighborhood, India is located in the middle of Southern Asia. Therefore, the developments in this region have significant impact on us despite the asymmetry of size in our favour. The complex historic background of the region brings its own baggage and legacy issues, which impact on the present. Our foreign and security policies have to constantly factor these issues and developments.
As we look at the map of SAARC, the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation, one is struck by the fact that India sits in the middle of this region, looming large in size, and is surrounded by other SAARC nations on all sides. We share land borders or maritime boundary with all, (including Afghanistan, through Pak occupied Kashmir) . Except Pakistan and Afghanistan, which is the recent entrant to SAARC, none of the member countries share borders with one another except India. Thus India is the only neighbor each SAARC country has, except Pakistan Afghanistan border, with their own legacy issues concerning Durand line and divided Pakhtoon race. This fact alone underlines the importance of relations with the neighbours and also the challenges for us of managing these relationships.
South Asian countries have shared destiny and our future well being is inexorably intertwined. The future of our region is in the hands of the respective countries' opinion makers, politicians, civil servants, military leaders, media, corporate world, civic society activists and indeed the academic world. While we cannot escape our neighbours, we can indeed contribute to shaping our future in this neighbourhood. We need to draw lessons from the historic past, learn from the actions taken and not taken and the context therof and craft policies and actions to manage our relations to keep them in sync with our broader domestic objectives of providing a secure and safe environment to our citizens, develop and maximize our domestic growth with fuller utilization of our material and human resources, eradicate the blight of poverty in our society, strengthen democratic institutions and practices and reach the goal of fully developed society in material and social terms.
Membership of SAARC provides us a ready definition of South Asian Region. This includes Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, the Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka. Nepal, Bhutan and Afghanistan are landlocked, with practical access only through other SAARC countries, for the first two through India and in case of Afghanistan, through Pakistan. Some consider Myanamar and Iran also as potential members. In any case, Myanamar shares borders with India and also has a history of relations and interaction with India and is thus an important neighbor of ours. In the North lies China, through Tibet it shares large chunk of border with us and also a legacy of issues.
This in essence comprises the immediate neighbourhood of India. The total area of SAARC at over 5 million sq km, total population of 1.6 billion, estimated GDP of over $4.38 Billion and per capita income of nearly $ 2300 define the place of this region in the world. In comparison to other regional integration groupings, SAARC has a modest record which pales in comparison to the EU, NAFTA, SADC & even ASEAN in our neighbourhood.
SAARC grouping is unique in huge asymmetry in size, population and economic and social indicators of the member countries. India looms large in size in SAARC comprising 75 to 80% of land area, population, GDP and other macroeconomic matrices. The next largest member Pakistan has only 10 to 11 % share of these factors. Others are even much smaller. India has an overwhelming military capabilities advantage and, along with Pakistan, is a nuclear power. This asymmetry brings to the fore exaggerated sensitivities, fears and complexes of India’s neighbours about us, complicating the already complex web of historic burden, despite the past Indian reticence to leverage its size and strength in our external relations. Often, small groups with vested interests in neighbouring countries find it expedient to indulge in India bashing to gain electoral advantage or to divert attention from their own domestic failures.
South Asia has unique geographic identity, bounded by sea on three sides, framed by mountains in the North and East and much of North West, thus forming a cohesive landmass. Shared civilizational ties, languages, culture, ethnic bonds and collective memory of five millennia of shared existence and current economic ties should have further enhanced the possibility of regional cohesion. However the recent historic causes and asymmetry of size etc. have posed major challenges to bring about significant cooperation in the region. The impact of the cold war, spread of global terrorism, unrealistic attempts for parity with India and entrenchment of special interest which benefit from antagonism with India are other challenges.
Internally the SAARC region faces major problems of socio-economic development and security. It is home to nearly 45 percent of global poor, or in sheer numbers, nearly half a billion persons subsist on just over a dollar a day. In addition to poverty, disease, illiteracy, gender disparity, sectarian and religious conflict in various degrees, insurgencies, terrorism and threats to democratic institutions in several countries remain major challenges for the societies in the region. On the positive side, democratic space is growing in the region, though in varying degrees in different neighbours. In India, liberal universal democracy remains entrenched and strong despite, or perhaps because of, raucous cacophony of exceptionally free media and civic discourse. In all other SAARC countries, there has been positive movement towards greater role of the civil elected leadership. In addition, in the past decade or more, the region has seen, in contrast with the global trends, a healthy economic growth of about six percent.
SAARC has given institutional platform to the countries of the region to enhance engagement and integration. Even though the economic engagement parameters are still somewhat modest compared to ASEAN etc., it has nevertheless provided an institutional mechanism to the organs of the governments, business and industry and civic societies of the region to engage on a regular basis. Leaders meet regularly at the summit, ministerial, senior officials and experts levels and are able to have bilateral interaction on the sidelines. Each year there are hundreds of structured interactions of various expert committees, sectoral programmes and other ad hoc meetings, which help in implementation of the agreed programmes, exchange of information and views and in plain trust building. Much of these interactions do not attract adequate media attention, but their importance cannot be minimized.
In institutional terms, entry into force of SAARC Preferential Trade Arrangement (SAPTA) in 1994 and its replacement with SAARC Free Trade Area Agreement (SAFTA) in 2006 has resulted in some growth in trade in the region, which has now crossed $ 1.2 billion. Admittedly, it is still much below the potential as a recent ADB study estimates the potential of intra SAARC trade under SAFTA to be over $ 85 billion. Trade potential will also be diversified by the signing in 2010 of SAARC Agreement on Trade in Services (SATIS) . A $ 300 million SAARC Development Fund (SDF) has given impetus to formulation of some regional development projects. South Asia Regional Standards Organisation (SARSO) will harmonize standards region wise and reduce time taken in customs clearance. A South Asian University has been established in New Delhi with $ 300 million outlay and has admitted its first batch of 50 students. It has considerable scope of expansion in future, for the benefit of the youth of the region. Infrastructure connectivity has also received attention through expanded cooperation in infrastructure development and the current dacade 2010-20 has been designated as the "Decade of Intra-Regional Connectivity of SAARC”. A number of regional institutions like SAARC Food Bank and SAARC Disaster Management Centre have potential to help address common regional problems. The SAARC Convention on Environment signed at Thimpu Summit is the culmination of the increased coordination and cooperation between SAARC members on the global issue of climate change. India’s proposal to create a South Asian Forum for Exchange of Ideas on the Future Development of South Asia was taken on board in 2011. Cooperation in the financial sector, customs administrations, tourism and culture have progressed. Discussion on counter terrorism has become a regular feature of SAARC interaction.
Of course, despite these benefits, SAARC has fulfilled its potential only partially in more than nearly three decades of its existence. There are many reasons for that, starting with the challenges posed by the huge asymmetry of size, legacy problems, trust deficit, episodical disruption through cross border terrorism and sometimes, distracted attention from key political decision makers.
The obsessive compulsive hostility of official Pakistan stemming from the peculiar nature of its birth seeded in the identity of exclusion and accompanied by large scale blood letting was further strengthened by cynical power politics of cold war by the Western bloc led by the UK and later by US. Birth of Bangladesh in 1971 in the wake of genocidal repression of Eastern Wing by Pakistani army and the role played by India lead to additional strains. The blatent use of terrorism as a state policy by the Military establishment of Pakistan and large scale radicalization and Talibanization of its society has resulted in creation of a Frankenstein monster which is now bent upon devouring its own creator. Pakistan’s blatent interference in Afghanistan and US role in Afghanistan with imminent withdrawal from the region pose big challenges for the stability and peace in the Western part of the region, where future trends still remain hazy.
The emasculation of the political leadership, media, liberal parts of civic society, economy, business and education sectors by the permanent establishment of Pakistan lead by the Army to strengthen and perpetuate their own control pose additional challenges to the country and to the global community. Kargil war and Pakistani war against us by other means like through terrorism, drugs, fake Indian currency etc. remain live current challenges. Therefore managing our relations with Pakistan will remain a major challenge in the foreseeable future. India needs to be prepared to deal with an increasingly unstable, unpredictable and belligerent Pakistan. At the same time, we should continue our efforts to strengthen liberal elements in Pakistani society and build bridges with responsible players there to strengthen its democracy and stability.
Even bigger disparity of size between India and other neighbours brings complications of psyche into play, where the temptation to grandstand against India of often in display from many domestic political players. Sri Lanka, after the defeat of LTTE and elimination of Prabhakaran in 2009 has dragged its feet on implementing further steps to address the just grievances of the Tamil minority, needed to bring a lasting solution to the matter. Indian abstaining on a Human Rights Council resolution for setting up a body to investigate human rights abuses by Sri Lanka security forces has given us a chance to bring our ties on a more pragmatic, firmer footing. China and Pakistan have been active against us in Sri Lanka and the domestic Tamil Nadu politics has reduced our wiggle room. As the Bilateral Free Trade Agreement has given good results for Sri Lanka, both sides need to upgrade it to a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement soon through ongoing negotiations.
Bangladesh society was split due to the manner of its independence. The fact that it is surrounded by Indian landmass except the opening to the Bay of Bengal and the ethnic/linguist pull/push factor with Indian Bengal have coloured the judgment of its society. In the recent years Sheikh Hasina lead government has shown considerable sagacity to pursue constructive relations with India and the country has benefitted significantly in economic, industrial and security spheres with Indian government and Industry contributing generously to help Bangladesh progress. India is exporting electricity to Bangladesh and is helping augment generation and transmission of power in Bangladesh. Bangladesh has cooperated considerably in controlling the menace of North-Eastern Indian insurgencies. The ratification of exchange of border enclaves as per existing agreement needs to be speeded up and Teesta Water sharing agreement needs to be completed soon to maintain the momentum.
Afghanistan has the potential of providing links between South Asia and Central Asia for trade, pipelines and infrastructure. It has just conducted their Presidential elections on 5th April with high turnout despite terrorist threats. A runoff poll will be necessary as no candidate has secured more than half the votes polled even though Mr. Abdulla Abdulla is way ahead from other candidates. ISAF forces of US and NATO are drawing down their defence forces this year and handing over the responsibility for maintaining security all over Afghanistan to the National Security Forces. International Security Forces are limiting their role to training and special operations. There are fears that Afghanistan may slip back into Taliban control with the help of Pakistan.
However, Afghanistan today is very different from Afghanistan of 2001. It has motivated and committed professional army which is well trained and has stood on its own against the Taliban attacks. Security and economic development of Afghanistan is in our interest. In the last decade, India has invested a lot in stabilization and growth in Afghanistan. Our assistance of over two billion dollars has meshed with the Afghan priorities. We have made the Parliament complex, strategic Zaranj-Delaram Road, Pul-e-Khumri power station and transmission line to Kabul, the Salma dam and several projects which impact positively on the lives of Afghans like hospitals, roads, and schools. We are also helping them in human resources skills development and training of Armed forces and helping them build capacities and institutions to deal with threats of religious extremism, terrorism and separatism. We are also engaged with the Istanbul Process and with regional powers like China, Russia and Central Asian countries to prevent Afghanistan backslide into pre-2001 situation and to ensure that peace and economic progress continues after 2014.
Nepal has long open border with India and a special treaty relationship under which the Nepali citizens are treated at par with Indian citizens. The special ties include historic interaction, culture, religion and migrant populations in each other’s country. Nepal has been undergoing a difficult constitutional transition from a monarchy to a republic. We continue to support this process and have stepped up our direct assistance of providing essential commodities to the population and also helping further develop connectivity and capacities for education and training. The transition political set up has now settled down to tackle the internal issues and India baiting has lessened considerably.
India Maldives relations have been friendly and cooperative and India helped the Maldives put down a violent coup attempt in 1988. The 2012 forcible removal of President Mohamad Nashid lead to an uncertain situation and we were able to encourage the stakeholders there to hold elections which were won by Mr. Abdulla Yameen, younger brother of the first President Maumoon Abdul Gayoom. India has been helping the Maldives in healthcare facilities, maritime and air security and HR capacity building, among other areas. Cancellation of International Airport operation lease deed by GMR of India has been a set back but the matter is being handled by the courts in Singapore.
Our relations with Bhutan are strong and cooperative and have withstood the test of transition of Bhutan from absolute monarchy to elected democratic government. We have a bilateral treaty giving special rights to Bhutanese citizens at par with our citizens. Our aid projects in Bhutan including hydropower generation projects, cement plants and connectivity capacity building have transformed Bhutanese economy. China has been showing increasing interest in the country lately, which is being monitored closely by us.
India has been following a look east policy since the time of Prime Minister Narasimha Rao to strengthen links with the South East Asian countries through India’s North East. Myanamar, which was inward looking for a long time is opening up. It provides us opportunities to step up engagement across various sectors with it. Myanamar is also the land bridge between India and member countries of ASEAN. We have welcomed the positive changes there and are helping Myanamar develop capacities of infrastructure and for exploitation and marketing of its natural resources.
China is our largest neighbor in the North with nearly 4000 km of borders, largest population in the world and fast growing economy. A resurgent China is already causing anxiety in its neighbourhood from Japan to ASEAN to Central Asian Republics and Russia. Its complex relations with India spanning millennia, with unresolved border disputes, geographical proximity, the presence of the Dalai Lama in India, unrest in Tibet, its ties with Pakistan and historical memories all complicate this relationship. The relentless military modernization of Peoples Liberation Army and Chinese Navy, issues of river water sharing, Chinese intrusion into the Indian ocean region, stapled visas for J&K residents and visa denial for Arunachal residents and unpredictability of Chinese behavior all add up to the uncertainties.
On the other hand, burgeoning economic, commercial and investment ties and our attempt to establish a cooperative relationship have meant that both competition and cooperation will go hand in hand. China is already the largest trading partner of India with bilateral trade poised to cross $ 100 Billion shortly. Our engagement is getting deeper and more diversified thus providing a shared stake in maintaining peace and tranquility on our borders. Interestingly, more than 60% of India China bilateral agreements have been signed in the last ten years and high level visits and engagements have also grown noticeably during this period. Thirty Six bilateral dialogue mechanisms have been created covering diverse subjects. This year has been designated as the Year of Friendly Exchanges between India and China. We are cooperating on a whole host of issues like the global climate change negotiations, global governance, international trade negotiations and so on. At the same time, India is strengthening its capacity to defend our territorial integrity.
Historically, extra-regional powers haven added to instability in South Asia and have indirectly been a factor in inter state conflict in our region. UK, followed by USA sucked Pakistan into cold war military blocks. Russia became a player in the region as we were forced to rely on it for our defence procurement. In recent decades, China has been becoming more active as an external player in countries around India. It has developed a special relationship with Pakistan and has even helped it develop its nuclear weapons and missiles capability through clandestine route. Its activities in the region are perceived to be an attempt to encircle India.
For us, the central focus has been to manage the relations with our neighbours in such a way that positive trends are strengthened and the negative factors are controlled and managed, so that our domestic economic and social development is not disrupted and our security is maintained. For this, both the Government and the civic society have to work together to enlarge cooperation and to reduce the possibilities for tension and conflict. At the national level, besides the Union cabinet and the Ministry of External Affairs, a wide array of Ministries and agencies have to work in a coordinated manner with business and industry, media, civic society organizations and the domestic regional and state players to pursue India’s core national interest.
Academia can contribute significantly to this effort by studying and analyzing developments in our neighbourhood. Greater interaction and capacity building among academic institutions, think tanks and centres of excellence will help you to look at new challenges as they emerge and offer ideas and proposals to tackle them. Academia can also play an important role in educating and sensitizing decision makers at local level in politics, civil services and business and industry to the benefits of promoting cooperation. Benefits of cooperation of sub regions of India closer to the respective neighbouring countries can be explored more in depth by the academic institutions of the sub region.
This is a broad brush preview of the region in which we live, the interplay of various factors in our neighbourhood and our Nation’s attempts to deal with them. I shall be happy to attempt to answer any questions which you may have.
I thank you for your attention
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